Andishe_ye Amari

Andishe_ye Amari

Application of conditional heteroscedasticity models in financial time series

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Department of Statistics, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
Abstract
Due to its dynamic nature, the capital market faces more uncertainty compared to other financial markets such as bank deposits and corporate bonds; therefore, it is expected to have higher returns. This feature has led to the prediction of financial market volatility and stock prices of companies listed on the stock exchange always receiving attention from researchers and analysts. In this article, by examining the common characteristics of financial time series, the volatility of daily stock returns in the Iranian capital market is modeled. Then, the general trend of fitting the mean and volatility models of financial time series is explained. Given that variance heterogeneity is observed in many financial time series, symmetric and asymmetric conditional heteroscedasticity models will be introduced and examined. To evaluate the introduced models, Mellat Bank stock data is used and the trend of fitting different models is presented, along with sensitivity analysis to different distributions of innovation factors. Finally, after evaluating the goodness of fit of the proposed model, an in-sample forecast of Mellat Bank stock returns and volatility will be made and compared with the actual values ​​of the series returns.
Keywords

Volume 29, Issue 1
September 2024

  • Receive Date 01 May 2025
  • Revise Date 12 July 2025
  • Accept Date 23 July 2025
  • First Publish Date 23 July 2025
  • Publish Date 22 August 2024