Andishe_ye Amari

Andishe_ye Amari

Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19

Document Type : Original Article

Author
Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
 At the end of December 2019, the spread of a new infectious disease was reported in Wuhan, China, caused by a new
 coronavirus and officially named Covid-19bytheWorldHealthOrganization. Asthenumberofvictimsofthevirusexceeded
 1,000, the World Health Organization chose the official name Covid-19 for the disease, which refers to ”corona”, ”virus”,
 ”disease” and the year 2019. The forecasting about Covid-19, can help the government make better decisions. In this paper,
 an objective approach is used for forecasting Covid-19 based on the statistical methods. The most important goal in this
 paper is to forecast the prevalence of coronavirus for confirmed, dead and improved cases and to estimate the duration of
 the management of this virus using the exponential smoothing method. The exponential smoothing family model is used for
 short time-series data. This model is a kind of moving average model that modifies itself. In other words, the exponential
 smoothingisoneofthemostwidelyusedstatisticalmethodsfortimeseriesforecasting, andtheideaisthatrecentobservations
 will usually provide the best guidance for the future. Finally, according to the exponential smoothing, we will provide some
 suggestions.
Keywords

Volume 26, Issue 2
February 2022

  • Receive Date 04 May 2025
  • First Publish Date 04 May 2025
  • Publish Date 20 February 2022