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:: Volume 21, Issue 2 (3-2017) ::
Andishe 2017, 21(2): 33-44 Back to browse issues page
Varinace-Based Sensitivity Analysis of Deterministic Model
Majid Janfada * , Davood Shahsavani
Abstract:   (5093 Views)

‎The study of many scientific and natural phenomena in laboratory condition is sometimes impossible‎, ‎therefore theire expresed by mathemathical models and simulated by complex computer models (codes)‎. ‎Running a computer model with different inputs is called a computer expriment‎.

‎Statistical issues allocated a wide range of applications for computer expriment to itself‎. ‎In this paper‎, ‎the‎ ‎structure of computer models is described‎, ‎and one of statistical applications‎, ‎that is variance-based sensitivity analysis is expressed‎. ‎Sensitivity analysis‎, ‎involves a set of methods that determine the effect on model inputs on the output by using sensitivity indices‎. ‎The indices are defined based on the concept‎ ‎of condition variance and the since explicit mathematical form of the model is unclear‎, ‎hence the essues monte carlo based them are proposed‎.

‎Due to the inherent complexity of the model‎, ‎execuation time is problem.Therefore a specifict design of expriment‎, ‎base on Quasi-random number‎, ‎is proposed‎ ‎to reduce the runnig costs‎. ‎As an application‎, ‎the INCA-N model that simulates amount of Nitrogen in river‎ ‎and underground sources was used‎. ‎Using the sensitivity indices‎, ‎we could found the effective‎ ‎variable on this danger pollution that threaten human life and inviromental‎.

Keywords: ‎deterministic model‎, ‎variance based sensitivity analysis‎, ‎quasi-random number‎, ‎INCA-N model‎.
Full-Text [PDF 492 kb]   (2046 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Applicable | Subject: Special
Received: 2013/01/8 | Accepted: 2017/03/15 | Published: 2017/03/15
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janfada M, shahsavani D. Varinace-Based Sensitivity Analysis of Deterministic Model. Andishe 2017; 21 (2) :33-44
URL: http://andisheyeamari.irstat.ir/article-1-213-en.html


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Volume 21, Issue 2 (3-2017) Back to browse issues page
مجله اندیشه آماری Andishe _ye Amari
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