:: Volume 26, Issue 2 (3-2022) ::
Andishe 2022, 26(2): 73-80 Back to browse issues page
Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19
Vahid Rezaei Tabar *
Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract:   (707 Views)
At the end of December 2019, the spread of a new infectious disease was reported in Wuhan, China, caused by a new coronavirus and officially named Covid-19 by the World Health Organization. As the number of victims of the virus exceeded 1,000, the World Health Organization chose the official name Covid-19 for the disease, which refers to "corona", "virus", "disease" and the year 2019.
 The forecasting about Covid-19 can help the government make better decisions. In this paper, an objective approach is used for forecasting Covid-19 based on the statistical methods. The most important goal in this paper is to forecast the prevalence of coronavirus for confirmed, dead and improved cases and to estimate the duration of the management of this virus using the exponential smoothing method. The exponential smoothing family model is used for short time-series data. This model is a kind of moving average model that modifies itself. In other words, exponential smoothing is one of the most widely used statistical methods for time series forecasting, and the idea is that recent observations will usually provide the best guidance for the future. Finally, according to the exponential smoothing, we will provide some suggestions.
Keywords: Covid-19, Forecasting, Objective approach, Exponential Smoothing
Full-Text [PDF 258 kb]   (439 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: General
Received: 2020/11/4 | Accepted: 2022/03/30 | Published: 2022/09/8

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Volume 26, Issue 2 (3-2022) Back to browse issues page